Snap Insight: Audacity of Lebanon pager attacks sends a clear warning to Hezbollah

SINGAPORE: Even by the standards of the Middle East, the pager attacks on Tuesday (Sep 17) in Lebanon, which killed nine and injured thousands, would have left keen observers of the region taken aback by their scale and audacity.
The region is where a suspected artificial intelligence-assisted, remote-controlled weapon was used to kill Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, then Iran’s top nuclear scientist, as he drove to his country home in 2020. It was also where Hamas’ political leader Ismail Haniyeh was assassinated in July, by a bomb allegedly planted months ahead of his trip to Iran in the room he was to occupy at a highly secure guest facility.
Tuesday’s pager attacks, however, were on another level.
Whether they were rigged with explosives before being delivered to members of Iran-aligned Lebanese militia Hezbollah or were targets of a cyberattack, planning for thousands of them to be triggered at the same time required an extraordinary level of planning and sophistication.
Unlike the attacks themselves, gauging the impact of thousands of explosions crippling or killing people simultaneously around the country and elsewhere – some reports suggest Hezbollah operatives in Syria were also targeted – does not require much imagination. Hezbollah must now be gripped by panic, fear, and an acute sense of vulnerability.
The Lebanese militia has blamed Israel, although there has been no official confirmation or denial of this from Tel Aviv, as was the case for the other attacks described above. The message, nonetheless, is clear: We can get you anywhere.
To what end? In recent days, Israel has expanded its aims for the war it finds itself in, to include the return of its citizens to the north of the country, who have been made refugees by rocket fire from Hezbollah for the better part of a year.
To do so, it will have to reduce this threat, and, as Israeli officials have put it, the window for anything other than a military operation to achieve this goal is closing fast. The pager attacks should thus be seen as the first salvo of this operation.
This brings the region to a place it has found itself in several times since the Oct 7, 2023 Hamas attack in Gaza: On the cusp of an all-out war between Israel and its adversaries.
Previous fears did not materialise, owing to intense diplomatic action, carefully calibrated retaliation on both sides, the deployment of massive American firepower as a deterrent, and, not least, a recognition of what full-on conflict would mean for the countries involved.
Each time the fear has receded, however, a new action rekindles worry.
In April, Iran sent the region into uncharted territory when it launched hundreds of missiles and drone at Israel in retaliation for an attack on its on its consulate in Damascus. It was the first direct attack on Israeli territory from Iran.
Thanks to action from Israeli, American and Arab defences, the strike caused little damage, but the message was sent. A limited Israeli strike in retaliation was carried out, and the matter was considered closed.
Then came Haniyeh’s killing. Again, the world braced for the prospect of a wider war. This chapter has not been closed: Iran has said it would respond at a time and place of its choosing, but no action has been taken thus far.
The pager strike brings us to the brink once again. The main difference this time is that it appears aimed at sending a warning.
Hezbollah will no doubt be compelled to respond. Not doing so would telegraph weakness, and magnify the humiliation of having thousands of its fighters crippled by an attack seemingly out of nowhere, by an unseen enemy.
The reported injury suffered by Iran’s ambassador to Lebanon will also force Tehran to consider a response.
Both sides know, however, that a full-fledged war would be devastating to each other. The Israeli military’s capabilities are well known. So are Hezbollah’s: Its arsenal of rockets and missiles allows it to strike much of Israel, including major population centres that have thus far remained unscathed.
This provides reasonable pause for cause. If any added incentive was needed, the pager attacks would provide that. Sadly, “reasonable” is not a word that can be used to describe much of what is happening in the region these days. Neither is “hope”.
Carl Skadian, a former journalist and editor for 30 years, is Senior Associate Director at the Middle East Institute, NUS.